The seven true championship contenders
The conventional wisdom says a healthy Nets team will smoke the field this year. But with Kyrie Irving, things are typically unconventional. Brooklyn still has two former MVPs on their team, and a good deal of depth, but the unpredictability of injuries, cohesion, and chemistry leaves plenty of room for other teams to take the title. How many legitimate contenders are there this year? What are the questions each team faces heading into this season? Let’s take a look.
BROOKLYN NETS
Why they can win: They have the most top-end talent. Durant is the most unguardable offensive force of this era, maybe ever. James Harden is also an unstoppable offensive force with next-level passing ability. They’re both former MVPs. Their third-best player is Kyrie Irving is a stupefyingly creative shot-maker, coming off a 50/40/90 season. They nearly have a monopoly on old, nearly washed power forwards with Blake Griffin, Paul Millsap, and LaMarcus Aldridge. Joe Harris shot 47.5% from deep last season before turning into white DeMar Derozan from distance against the Bucks. They added another sniper and scrapper in Patty Mills this offseason, and they drafted Cam Thomas, who appears to have had the fear center of his brain removed.
The Nets are the odds-on favorite even without Kyrie. With him, they have an unstoppable offense.
Why the Nets will fall short: Defense is a big question mark. The Nets made progress and had a passable defense by the time the playoffs rolled around, but defense won’t be their calling card. Also, everyone hates them. New York hates them. James Harden is the king of bullshit foul drawing — what will he do with the new rule changes? People still aren’t ready to forgive Durant for his free agency decisions. Kyrie’s act appears to be wearing thin for most everyone — but the Nets have next to no options to deal him. Brooklyn has leaned as heavily into the player-empowerment era as any team in history, and seems to have given control of their franchise to Durant, Irving, and Harden.
Best Five: Durant, Harden, Irving, Harris, Griffin
What I think will happen: Nets win the title.
What I want to happen: Kyrie sits out all year, becomes a train-hopping slam poet. Bam dusts Durant at the rim (a bit like this) to ice a Game 6, series-clinching win in the second round of the playoffs. Kyrie Irving retires. James Harden goes on a nationwide strip-club binge, documenting his descent into decadence on TikTok where he’s last seen somewhere in Montana, 50 pounds overweight and crying outside of a Taco John’s.
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Why they can win: LeBron James and Anthony Davis are the most versatile and dangerous offense/defense pair in the league. Frank Vogel can cobble a legitimate defense out of the mishmash that includes Carmelo Anthony and Malik Monk. They have a bunch of capable shooters surrounding their stars. Anthony Davis is willing to play center, which will unlock their best lineups. Also, did you hear that they added Russell Westbrook?
Why they’ll fall short: They added Russell Westbrook. There’s a learning curve for ball-dominant stars who team up. This will be reminiscent of LeBron and Wade, sorting through some “your-turn/my-turn” offense before they get in a rhythm. The previous blueprint for LeBron-led teams was to surround him with solid two-way players and lethal shooting and let the King dissect the defense. How much control will LeBron cede to Russ in the playoffs? I don’t doubt that Russ will buy LeBron valuable time in the regular season, but how willing is LeBron to let Russ run the team in the postseason?
If — as it seems likely — LeBron will resume some primary ball-handling duties in the postseason, will Russ do anything valuable off the ball? He hasn’t shown it thus far in his career, and I’m not betting on it to happen this year. Also, Westbrook can’t shoot. Their role players tend to be either offensive or defensive players, which may mean they don’t have a clear closing five. They’re also very old.
Best Five: LeBron, Davis, Russ, Ariza… Bazemore?
What I think will happen: If they’re healthy, who has the best chance of beating them in the West? This stupid team is probably going to the Finals.
What I want to happen: I want the Warriors to boat race these suckers. I want to see Draymond Green direct a defense that cuts off drives to the rim and dares Westbrook to beat them with his jumper. And I want to see Russ pull up and clank 19 footers until LeBron makes Frank Vogel play Rondo (and Vogel has to pretend like it was his decision all along). I want the Warriors to slam the door on the series with a Steph/Draymond pick and roll where the Lakers switch the action and Steph hits Draymond going downhill and Draymond baits Davis into jumping early and hits Kevon Looney — the oldest-looking, most unathletic 25 year-old ever — for a gloriously fundamentally sound lay-in off the glass.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS
Why they can win: Well, now they know they can do it. There’s something to be said for the confidence of having already won. The Bucks overcame 0-2 deficits twice in the playoffs — including in the Finals when they came back to stun the Suns. Giannis Antetokounmpo is only 26 years old. This will be his 8th season in the NBA. Chris Duarte, the Pacers rookie, is 24 years old. And Giannis still has room to grow. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday (30 and 31 years old, respectively), are still in their prime. They’ll get Donte DiVincenzo back. They re-signed cult hero Bobby Portis to fill the PJ Tucker void. They traded for Grayson Allen and will welcome back the veteran presence of George Hill.
Why they’ll fall short: Bucks fans are tired of hearing about how they were a Kevin Durant toe away from heading home — but it’s true. And Durant carried that Nets team without Kyrie Irving and with a clearly hobbled James Harden. For the first two games of that series, the Bucks looked outclassed. People were lobbying to fire Coach Bud and replace him with Rick Carlisle mid-series. Budenholzer made more adjustments than years past and has now inked a new extension, but I wouldn’t be shocked if a whiz like Carlisle or Spoelstra flummoxed him with a few novelties in the postseason.
Best Five: Giannis, Middleton, Holiday, Portis, DiVincenzo
What I think will happen: I hate to say it, but I think the Nets (or Heat) are gonna knock them out.
What I want to happen: If the Heat don’t knock off Brooklyn, please please please beat Brooklyn. I beg you. I want to see Brook Lopez and Giannis hold off a flurry of late-game layups like Pippen and Horace Grant. I want Giannis to get a chase-down block of James Harden that ricochets so hard off the backboard that Jrue Holiday grabs the ball at midcourt and tosses a lob to Bobby Portis who then celebrates by tearing his jersey in half.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS
Why they can win: It’s fun to root for the Warriors as unlikely underdogs again. But is their inclusion as title contenders realistic? Or is it residual respect born out of their not-too-distant “light years” dominance? The case for the Warriors — who are still listed with the fourth-best odds to win the 2022 title is based on a large number of contingencies that need to break their way. But nothing matters more than what they get from Klay Thompson, and boy is it difficult to project what he will be capable of doing after two monstrous lower leg injuries. Steph Curry has talked about the Warriors season unfolding in three phases — holding it down until Klay returns, re-integrating Klay and seeing what he’s able to provide, and then pushing for the playoffs. If Thompson can get back to even 80% of what he was pre-injury — particularly defensively — the Warriors have a real chance.
Offensively, Jordan Poole looks like he’s going to have himself a moment. The Warriors look ready to consistently play small and they’ve added shooters in order to keep Curry from suffocating. They will likely simplify Wiseman’s role and they’ve sunk a lot of money into revamping their developmental staff. Maybe they get some decent energy minutes from their young guys to carry them through the doldrums of January basketball.
Why they’ll fall short: What does Klay Thompson look like? Yes, he’ll be able to shoot. But it seems very unlikely that he’ll be able to defend at the same level he once did. He used to draw the assignment of checking lead guards, which helped Curry conserve energy and gave the Warriors a disruptor at the point of attack. With his burst and lateral movement likely significantly lessened, can the Warriors defend at a high level with Thomspon on the floor? Those rookies and James Wiseman are not ready to significantly contribute to winning. And right now there isn’t a superstar available who is going to tip the scales. Regardless, it doesn’t seem like Joe Lacob wants to burn his bridge to the future.
All of this relies on if Curry and Green can replicate their seasons from last year, which is no small feat. Did I mention that they have a luxury tax bill higher than every other team’s total payroll? Is Joe Lacob really going to keep shoveling that kind of coin into the furnace of a car that crashes into the wall in the 1st round of the playoffs?
Best 5: Curry, Green, Thompson, Wiggins and… Otto Porter Jr.?
What I think will happen: The Warriors sneak into the sixth seed and stun the Nuggets in the first round, but lose to the Lakers in Round 2.
What I want to happen: Full revenge tour. Beat LeBron and Russ into a pulp in the Western Conference Finals. Then beat a fully healthy KD, Harden and Kyrie in the Finals. I want Draymond Green to toss some sauce at KD as they close out the series and yell, “I told you! I told you we could win without you!”
MIAMI HEAT
Why they can win: Kyle Lowry is very good and Erik Spoelstra is very smart. Lowry never stops doing winning things on the basketball court. His hit-ahead passes, constant communication, traffic directing, bulldog defense, and peerless leadership are obvious. Butler and Lowry are two of the best help defenders in the league and should help hide weaker defenders like Herro and Robinson. They added a solid spot-up shooter and stout defender in PJ Tucker.
The Heat, like the Lakers, suffered from the shortest off-season in league history last year. They looked exhausted last season, particularly in the postseason, and were never able to find the same juice that they had in the bubble. Tyler Herro looks stronger. Max Strus may be the next Heat developmental victory. And if Kyle Lowry and Jimmy Butler get Bam Adebayo to really become a wolf, this team will be scary. If Adebayo becomes more comfortable taking a lead role, particularly offensively, the Heat can beat anyone. They could have the stingiest playoff defense in the league and they match up as well as anyone with the two other conference favorites — the Nets and the Bucks.
Why they’ll fall short: Do they have enough top-end talent? Lowry isn’t getting any younger. Neither is Jimmy Butler. For all of the Heat’s famed conditioning and military precision, is that enough to counteract the natural decline of age? Butler’s outside shot, while never great, has completely atrophied over the past two seasons. And, most importantly, does Bam have it in him to dominate? Will he take another leap and seize control of this team? Lowry and Butler will do their best to make it happen, but a lot of it will ride on Bam, a player who’s never functioned as the man, to step into a more prominent role.
Best Five: Butler, Lowry, Adebayo, Tucker, Herro.
What I think will happen: I think the Nets will beat them. This will make me sad.
What I hope will happen: Well, you can reference my previous point about the Nets. I want the Heat’s swarming defense to rattle the historically dominant Nets’ offense. I want PJ Tucker chirping and barking at KD. I want Kyle Lowry staying step-for-step with all of Kyrie’s pirouettes and jukes, only to force him into a rushed pass that Jimmy Butler telegraphs and takes the other way for a dunk. I want Harden to disrespect Max Strus and leave him open only to have Strus bury three straight threes in the fourth quarter of a close game. I want Harden to fall asleep off-ball and get beat on back cuts until the internet explodes.
UTAH JAZZ
Why they can win: They’re really freaking good. Their point differential last year (+9.3) was incredible. They have the best backline defender in the game today, but they struggled on defense when Gobert sat and Derrick Favors played (opponents produced a piddling 48.8% eFG with Gobert on the floor vs 54.8% with Favors, per Cleaning the Glass). Enter Hassan Whiteside (and cue the laughter). But Whiteside, for all of his additional flaws, actually fits their drop scheme well, and over the past four seasons he’s held opponents to an overall lower eFG% when he’s on the court (again, per Cleaning the Glass). I laughed when the Jazz added Jordan Clarkson, but Quin Snyder allowed him to thrive in a clearly defined role. Snyder will do the same with Whiteside, and the Jazz shouldn’t plummet when Gobert sits.
On offense, they’re led by Donovan Mitchell — who still has room to improve but is already tremendous. If you like ball movement and unselfish players, you need to watch some Jazz games. These guys share the ball like the classic Spurs and have a roster full of snipers. They are a fun team to watch. Georges Niang has departed for Philadelphia, but with old head Rudy Gay stepping in, they won’t miss a beat.
Why they’ll fall short: Can their scheme hold up in the playoffs? In a league where top-end talent almost always wins, do they have enough to match up with their loaded rivals, particularly when it comes to defending big wings? Who guards LeBron James — or even Paul George — in a playoff series? The Clippers solved the Jazz last year by spreading out the floor, moving Gobert out of the paint, and then mercilessly attacking mismatches. Are you really betting that the Jazz can stay in their drop coverage vs a healthy Warriors team, with the Steph/Draymond pick and roll humming and those two surrounded with shooters? Bogdanovic, Conley, Ingles and Gay are all getting older and the small market Jazz are a luxury tax team, expecting to pay close to $40 million this season. If they sputter, will they jettison a veteran to save significant cash?
Best 5: Mitchell, Gobert, Bogdanovic, Conley, Ingles
What I think will happen: Jazz will fall to the Lakers.
What I want to happen: If the Warriors don’t tag the Lakers, then I’ll be fine if the Jazz do it. If somehow, by some miracle, they find a way for Bogdanovic, Ingles, Gay and Royce O’Neale to hold up against LeBron James, I’ll be delighted beyond words. I want Joe Ingles draining a step-back three over a lazy Westbrook closeout and talking some real salty Australian trash. I want Donovan Mitchell to get LeBron switched onto him and then roast him off the dribble for a tight finish in traffic. I want more pictures of Quin Snyder looking like an axe murderer.
PHOENIX SUNS
Why they can win: They did it last year, right? The eternal Chris Paul will snake his way to the elbow and bark his team into the right positions forever. The team is mostly young, with Ayton, Booker, Bridges, and Cam Johnson still ascending. With the offense in the hands of pick-and-roll master Chris Paul, the Suns ran variations off their base package until teams were in tears. Last year, the Suns were an amazing team to watch and root for. They played great team basketball and should have nowhere to go but up, right?
Why they’ll fall short: Would they have gotten through the Lakers if LeBron and AD are fully healthy? No way. This is pure, baseless speculation but I think the Suns’ chemistry is going to crumble this year. Robert Sarver is cheap, already isn’t giving out extensions for Ayton or Bridges. Ayton is talking about expanding this game, but is he going to do it within the flow of their offense? This is year two under the intensely critical eye of Chris Paul, a notoriously difficult and demanding teammate. Maybe coach Monty Williams can keep everyone even keel and united, but I’m betting there are one too many obstacles. And ultimately the same question about top-end talent arises for the Suns — is it tougher for the Suns to match up with LeBron and AD? Or is it tougher for the Lakers to match up with Booker, Paul, Ayton, and Bridges?
Best 5: Booker, Paul, Bridges, Ayton, and Crowder.
What I think will happen: I just don’t see this team having the juice. I can see the Jazz, Warriors, Mavs, and Lakers all beating these guys.
What I want to happen: I want Sarver to hit Maximum Cheap mode. I want him to salary dump Jae Crowder and inexplicably throw in Cam Johnson even though he didn’t need to. I want him to sell Monty Williams to a floundering Mavericks team to replace a bumbling Jason Kidd for $5 million. I want him to sell the team’s private jet and spin the purchase of a “luxury bus” as a culture-building move.
So there you have it. All my expectations mixed with a bit of wild dreams and wishful thinking.