Who will be the no. 1 pick?

Between Jabari Smith Jr., Chet Holmgren, and Paolo Banchero, the leader in the clubhouse changes by the day

As a fan of a rebuilding team, I’ve been keeping an eye on Draft Twitter to see if one of Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren, Duke’s Paolo Banchero, or Auburn’s Jabari Smith will break out of the pack and enter clear no. 1 pick status.

All three have held the top spot in my mind at different points this year. I’m not alone, either. It seems like every day, a different tweet pops up along the lines of “Chet Holmgren is the one, don’t overthink it.”

Ben Pfeifer @bjpf_

chet holmgren nba action for a self created dho three, please don't overthink him

I start to feel bad for not being solidified on Holmgren as my top guy. And then I read this one:

Kyle Tucker @KyleTucker_ATH

Lord, Jabari Smith is good. He is the No. 1 pick. Don't overthink it, NBA teams. He is.

And then my early ideas on Smith being the no. 1 prospect are confirmed, until I remember the conviction in which many speak about Paolo Banchero:

Pat Welter WRAL @PatrickWelter

Ranking Paolo Banchero #2 is quite the hill to die on. Within seconds of watching his high school clips I was all in. I hadn’t seen anything like him since Kevin Durant and Lebron James. He’s not just #1, He’s the best prospect we’ll see for years. No need to over think it.

I know. I’m confused too.

There are four teams — Detroit, Orlando, Houston, Oklahoma City — that are vying to draft one of these three players. One of them will be left out. That’s a sadness I hope to avoid as a Pistons fan, but with last year’s luck, my expectations are minimal.

With Chet Holmgren, you’re getting a skinny-as-hell seven footer with guard skills and incredible rim protection. His frame may hold him back, but Holmgren makes up for it with incredible length and timing when contesting shots. On offense, he never misses inside the paint and is comfortable shooting with movement and bringing the ball up the floor. The only issue: He’s playing at Gonzaga in the WCC, and has dominated a weaker conference. Until tournament time, we don’t know if Chet can do it against better competition.

Auburn’s Jabari Smith has been my favorite prospect for most of the year. At 6’10, Smith is a modern NBA four with a picture-perfect jump shot and a mean streak around the rim. His future role on an NBA roster is already apparent. At worst, he’s an impactful 3&D forward you don’t need run plays for. At best, he’s a premier shot-maker from the Jayson Tatum School of Big Wings. The main issue with Smith is that he struggles to blow by or even attempt to get by defenders from the perimeter. There’s some Michael Porter Jr. here with his tendency to settle.

Paolo Banchero came into this season with the crown, and some might say he’s never lost it. Banchero can be a true do-it-all forward on offense: knocking down shots off the dribble and catch, finishes with both finesse and power, and rare playmaking chops. He’s listed at 6’10, 250 pounds, which is certainly an NBA frame. The main issue with Banchero is that he isn’t consistently engaged. He’ll fall asleep on a cutter, take a bad shot out of the high post, or stray from using his size on a smaller opponent.

I’ve laid out the elevator pitches for each of Chet, Jabari, and Paolo. But who do you like best? Let us know.