Will Zion Williamson be a bust?

He came to camp looking noticeably more, uh, rotund this season.

Forgive the incendiary headline. I don’t actually believe that Zion will be a bust, or that he’s trending that way. But the idea was floated during one of our recent Hoopla conversations, and conceptually, it’s not that crazy. In fact, it’s more likely than not that one of this years’ top five picks end up being a bit of a disappointment, at least relative to their draft position.

Zion has struggled with injuries, and he’s currently out for at least another two weeks as he recovers from a fractured foot. He came to camp looking noticeably more, uh, rotund this season. And, I don’t know, I’m no doctor, but adding more weight to his already hulking frame can’t be unequivocally great when you can jump as high as he can. But you know what? Shaq was humungous and sometimes quite out of shape and Barkley was a chubby little dynamo, so there’s a precedent.

Zion is still very young. He has been rather dominant in the paint when he’s played. And there is plenty of time for him to get healthy, develop, and lead a winning team.

For evidence of what an injury-plagued young big man is capable of, look no further than Joel Embiid. Embiid missed his first two seasons in the NBA with injuries and only played 30 games in his inaugural season. Health is still the biggest question mark for Embiid, but there’s no denying the talent.

Zion has shown enough that unless he’s handicapped by significant injury issues, I don’t have any doubt that he’ll have an excellent career.

But to show just how difficult it is to project stardom from a small sample size, you don’t need to look any further than Joel Embiid’s own draft class, specifically the two players drafted directly in front of him.

Do you remember Jabari Parker, the second overall selection in 2014 who was supposed to be a sure-fire 20 point per game scorer for the Bucks? He garnered comparisons to Carmelo Anthony, another stout, similarly-sized wing who had a highly advanced offensive game with questionable defensive habits. Parker is known for his “they don’t pay players to play defense” quote, which while perhaps slightly more nuanced than the headline, is still a rough look. (Interesting question from the rest of the quote, Parker says, “There’s only two players historically that play defense.” Which, first of all — what? And secondly, who are his two guys?).

After a promising start to his career, Jabari tore his ACL and hasn’t been able to latch onto a team long-term since. The Celtics just released Parker in a cost-savings move, and now the forward will look to resurrect his career elsewhere. The kid is only 26 years old.

The number one pick in 2014 was Embiid’s college teammate, the one and only Andrew Wiggins. Wiggins appeared to be the next iteration of the modern wing — a long, athletic guy who could get to the basket and flashed elite two-way potential. He had a hilarious nickname (Maple Jordan) and occasionally nerds on Reddit tried to line up another nickname. And sure, he wasn’t considered a near-lock for stardom like Zion, but he was the top overall pick nonetheless. Context matters, in the NBA and everywhere. Miscast as a lead creator in Minnesota, Wiggins did a pretty decent Harrison Barnes impression last season in Golden State. Maybe he’s not a multi-time all-star, but he’s a solid player. But ‘solid player’ isn’t exactly what you’re shooting for with the number one pick. Andrew Wiggins isn’t a Kwame Brown-level bust, but he’s also been decidedly underwhelming, as far as top selections in the draft are concerned.

We could spend more time talking about Markelle Fultz, Josh Jackson, James Wiseman, and Marvin Bagley, all of whom are too young to write off, but who have struggled thus far to fulfill the lofty expectations of their draft status. And there’s a lot longer list than just these three names (see below). As exciting as summer league and preseason games are, there are countless lottery picks who have struggled to stick in the league. It’s a different game at the pro level, and we’re about to see how these guys look on the big stage.

Zion’s going to be fine. But at least a couple of this years’ lottery picks aren’t going to pan out. There’s likely going to be someone on who’s going to underwhelm like Wiggins and someone who’s going to struggle to hang on like Parker. Who’s it going to be from this year’s class?